Sunday, 22 February 2015

Economics-101(Source :Balaji Vishwanath,Quora)


  1. Economics has two main streams - Microeconomics and Macroeconomics. Micro deals with customer behavior, incentives, pricing, margins, etc. Macro deals with broad economies and larger things such as interest rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other  stuff you see in the business column of a newspaper. Micro is more useful for the managers and macro is more used by investors. Except for points 2 & 3, I will cover macroeconomics in other points.
  2. Law of Supply & Demand: This is the founding block of economics. Whenever supply of something increases its price decreases and whenever supply decreases price increases. Thus, when you have excess production of corn, food prices decrease and vice versa. Think of this intuitively. You will find its applications in 1000s of places. 
  3. Marginal Utility: Whenever you have more of something its use for you diminishes. Thus, a $100 would be more valuable when you earn $1000/month than when you earn $1 million/month. This is widely used in setting up prices. 


     
  4. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): This is the fundamental measure of the size of an economy. This is conceptually equal to the sum of incomes of all people in the country or sum of the market value of all goods & services produced in that country. Right now US is the biggest economy in terms of GDP at around $14 trillion. That means, $14 trillion of value is produced in the US every year.
  5. Growth rate: The growth of an economy is commonly measured in terms of GDP growth rate. Since GDP is a measure of national income, this growth rate is a rough proxy for how an average person's income grows every year. 
  6. Inflation: You already know that the price of most products now are higher than in your grandfather's time. Inflation (measured in percent) is measure of how much a bunch of products have increased in price from last year. In mature economies, annual inflation is around 2% - that means on an average the prices of stuff goes up by 2% every year. The fundamental role of central banks is to manage this rate and keep it to a low positive number. Here are  the 100 year inflation numbers in the US. 


  7. Interest Rates: When you loan money to somebody, you expect something extra in return. This excess is called the interest. Interest rate is a positive number that measures how much excess you will get. There are bunch of rates here. In the short term, this rate is usually set by the Central Banks. Right now it is close to zero. In the long term, this is set by the market and is dependent on inflation and the long term prospects of the economy. The mechanisms in which the central banks control the short term rates is called monetary policy.
  8. Interest Rates vs. Inflation vs. growth: There exists almost an inverse relationship between interest rates & growth and interest rates also can affect inflation directly. Thus, when you increase interest rates inflation tend to come down, along with growth. One is good and other is bad. Thus, the constant tension on setting the interest rates. In the US, Federal Reserve sets the short term rates making it one of the most watched economic news.
  9. Fiscal Policy: Government can control the economy in a big way by adjusting its expenditure. The group of mechanisms using expenditure form the fiscal policy. When government spends more it can lead to more demand and that means more price increase. This means both high growth and high inflation. And it works in the reverse too. Thus, governments try to spend more during periods of low growth & low inflation and cut spending during periods of high growth & high inflation.
  10. Business cycle: Economies have their periods of booms and bust in cycles of approximately 7 years long. At the start of the cycle it is a boom, then it gets to the top, then there is a contraction leading to a recession (period of negative growth and/or increasing unemployment) and finally followed up with an expansion. 


Bonus:
1. Opportunity Cost: When you do an activity, you tend to equate how good the activity is when compared to the alternatives. For instance, when you are working hard a Friday night on a project, you might be thinking "man, I should be doing something else." The alternative (in this case, partying with friends) has a high value, and thus your present project better be attractive. This value of the alternative is termed as an "opportunity cost" - value of what you give up. Thus, if you quit a $120K/year paying job to do a startup, your opportunity cost of doing startup is $120K/year. Your payoff should be higher than what you give up. 

2. Comparative Advantage:  You are running your tech startup and one day a client asks you whether you can build a website for them. Should you offer to build the website for them, or should you pass up the opportunity to a friend? How do you decide? A rational person might calculate how much time they will take to build the website, and whether they can use that time to earn more building their current startup product. Then, he/she might calculate whether the friend might be able to build the site more efficiently. 

If the friend can build it more efficiently and you have a lot in your plate, you will pass up the opportunity. This is called the theory of comparative advantage. Your friend has an advantage here and it makes no sense for you to take up that business. Nations, businesses and people should do only those things they are better at and leave the rest to others. 

Saturday, 21 February 2015

Musings of a Saturday Afternoon

You never know what may happen next moment.Started this day as a normal Saturday.Lack of washing machine had been killing me ever since I moved to Bangalore but more so today. All my clothes are now soaked in detergent and I can barely walk or move as my ankle is sprained. While playing cricket this morning I suddenly stumbled upon a rock and fell and could not rise for next 4-5 minutes.Somehow collected my self up.While the game was great and I happily batted/bowled , the shock came when I removed my shoes after the game.I can't recognize my own swollen ankle.Its frightening.Its a bed rest for 10 days or more I think.As I am ordering food for home delivery(as I cant walk to  eat) the thought of clothes soaked in bucket is nagging me.Oh why I did that the first thing in morning,had only I known that I wont be able to walk properly a few hours later.But that's how unpredictable life is. Apart from my my swollen ankle here's what bothers me right now

Defence Preparedness of India

The news of Raffale jet being stuck has really pissed me off. Modi government got the mandate of the people for two basic reasons first being the revival of economy and second being strong measures against China and Pakistan. While market's   are  a game of perception and Modi has created the right noises, the results are also showing.The GDP growth rate now 7.4% is more than China.For the first time in decades India  and China are crossing each other with the latter in some what downward curve.Its great moment for India to reap the advantages of its demography. 
When it comes to defence sector its horrible.According to some reports The govt sanctioned strength of IAF is 42 squadron and we are at an all time low of 34 squadrons. This could mean humiliation at war.Recently Modi was at Bangalore were he stressed that the "largest importer of arms" tag should be shed. India should at least produce 70% of its defence needs.While private players like Reliance have floated companies for defence based contracts, its still in nascent stages.The main doubt being whether the Indian companies will be able to produce "off the shelf" fighter planes , helicopters and tanks.Its a question of life and death  for the army men who are gonna use them .The Tejas fighter delivered after 30 years is just too little late and too late.DRDO has messed up the entire Defence sector. Modi really needs to clear this mess. Like the Green Revolution ,White Revolution etc. India really needs an "Arms Revolution". 

Decline of the Pakistani Cricket Team

1 run for 4 wickets .The score read today morning in Pakistan vs . WI match. While I love the decimation of Pakistan at the hands of India(And this has happened more after 2000's as in 90's India mostly used to be on the receiving end) , the performance of this team against any other team in recent times clearly shows that it is one of the weakest Pakistani team. Their batting is a complete mess and they can hardly put 250 on board.The bowling too has been pedestrian.
As I remember the 90's I didn't fear the great Pakistani fast bowling.In 1999 test series Akram was very slow(I used to hear that he is one of the quickest bowlers around.) .Similarly Waqar was a big name but I could not find his bowling very lethal towards India. Akhtar did have his moment of glory in Kolkata where he bowled Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar in two successive deliveries, but that's it for the great Pace trio.It was actually the 3 batsmen in Saeed Anwar, Izaz Ahmed and Inzmam-ul-Haq who batted slowly and used to build partnerships at crucial stages of match that hurt India. Saleem Malik too was good at it. In the end as always it was Moin Khan or Rashid Latif (both Wicket keepers) along with Razzaq  who blasted the opposition.
Saqlain Mushtaq was the only off-spinner at that time to bowl in death overs and he not only controlled runs he used to bag wickets as well.The fall of Indian batting in 1999 Chennai test was engineered by him ,not the pace trio. Similarly for Razzaq who routinely used to get Tendulkar to put India on  back foot.

I used to hate both Saqlain and Glenn McGarth(of Australia) for putting India in all short of trouble.
So much so that I had named a neighborhood dog Saqlain Macgrath the player of Pakastralia. Needless to say the dog faced my vengeance for all the defeats heaped on India by Pakistan and Australia.Retribution for Saqlain came in 2004 ,his nemesis was  Virendra Sehwag.The Sehwag triple century in Multan for the first time made Saqlain appear as a School Kid. Sehwag's 300 came of a six on Saqlain's delivery. That was the end for him.As for McGrath he continued to torment India till 2007.

The joy of this recent World Cup victory is diluted by their repeated poor performances against all the other teams.
They really need a  trio of middle order batsmen, more than anything.
And their bowling lacks Ajmal who was their current Saqlain.


On a lighter note

In Washington, just before people sleep, they say 'Good night my love'
In London they say: 'Sweet dreams my darling'

In Mumbai they say: 'Dudachi pishvi latkavli?'(Did you hang the plastic bag for the milk packets?)

Friday, 13 February 2015

Memorable Moments: ICC World Cup 96,99,03


1996:


Played in the Indian subcontinent this WC saw the rise of cricketing minnows Sri Lanka as the world Champions.100 runs within fist 15 overs was the USP of Sri Lanka's success.


Prabhakar vs JayaSurya:

Prabhakar was a side on ,in swing bowler with pretty accurate line-length and a good clean action. JayaSurya took him to cleaners during league games and he continued to torment India for at least next 2 years. Kumble and Prasad bore his brunt in the years that followed  1996.




Jadeja vs Waqar Younis:

Quarter Finals vs Pakistan was a great game for India.
Javed Miandad also played in this match. Akram was out due to injury. So Waqar was kind of spearhead for the Pakistani attack.Pakistan were the defending champions then.
He was the quickest bowler at that time. Watch Waqar's decimation at the hands of Jadeja and Kumble. His pace being his nemesis as it made easier for the batsmen to hit him on a dead Bangalore wicket.





Prasad Vs Amir Sohail:

The Pakistani chase was brilliant, Anwar and Sohail were a deadly  opening pair. Sohail hit Prasad though covers for a 4 and gestured to fetch the ball from boundary. Prasad rattled his stumps the very next delivery.



Capitulation of India(India vs Sri Lanka Semis):

Story of 90's. Fall of Sachin's wicket almost invariably led to  a collapse.
This match is just one of the famous examples of the above mentioned syndrome. Blistering 65 by Sachin helped India to reach 98,but after his dismissal  there was a dramatic collapse.India lost 8 wickets within 120.
A weeping Kambli walking towards pavilion garnered much sympathy from press and public. But the spectators of Eden were unforgiving.It was provocation on their part which led to match being called off.



Walsh vs Fleming(WI vs AUS Semis):

WI was still a Cricket Powerhouse. Pace battery of WI was intact.This semifinal went to the wires.Lara played  a brilliant Knock. After his fall WI suffered, but kept playing in true Caribbean style.
Richie Richardson the skipper played a terrific innings towards the end and in the final over it was left to Walsh to switch strike with Richardson, but not for nothing Walsh had 32 ducks ducks against his name. Watch out for some great Caribbean bowlers like Ambrose and typical WI pulls/hooks .


                                    


1999:

India was never a favorite in this world cup and in fact they performed very poorly.Only memorable things were victory against Pakistan and 183 by Ganguly against Sri Lanka.

Olanga vs India:

This capitulation I find interesting. Olanga was taken to cleaners by Sachin some time ago. But Zimbabwe were a good team and often matches between India and Zimbabwe were close .I think almost every time.Flower brothers,Heath streak  were some quality players and the Indian side of 90's was one of  the weakest.




Ganguly vs Srilanka(Murli):

More than anything I remember this WC as an Indian fan for Ganguly stepping out to Murli and hitting him for a  six at least 4-5 times in his great knock of 183. A memorable knock.




Wasim vs Australia(league match):

Although the final between Australia and Pakistan was a one-sided affair, this match was pretty close. Australia were just about to rise as a Great Team. 
Australia went on to win 3 consecutive WC after this 99. 03 & 07.
In this close encounter they almost reached the target , just 10 runs behind,when Wasim produced some magnificent bowling.



Steve Waugh vs Gibbs:

After having a bad start Steve Waugh famously said that we only have to win 3 matches to win WC. Great way to look at things. This has always inspired me.At most stages in life we only have to clear one exam , get one job , get one girl etc. It simplifies everything.
Other quality which I admire is his small eyes.Nicknamed ICEMAN for his small,cold eyes he had the benefit, that others could not read his face. With all his anxiety within himself the opponent could never see him in real pressure. He was 100% grit.Not a pretty batsman(his stokes were not very graceful) like his Brother Mark, but very effective.He had proved himself in WI tour of 1995, when he stood up against Ambrose and Co Saibana Park.Chasing 271 as target Australia were reduced to 48-3 when he came on to bat.He countered the SA attack effectively and of score of 56 he flicked a Lance Klusener delivery to midwicket. Gibbs took it, but in his anxiety to celebrate with a skyward hurl, he dropped the ball. Waugh's reaction has gone down in the game's annals."You have dropped the World Cup mate". Waugh went to score 120 of 110 balls and secured an easy win for Australia.




Donald and Klusener:

Klusener was in the form of his life. Remaining unbeaten in last 4-5 innings he had scored close to 50 in each of them at crucial time. SA were in good form (as they always are in any WC) and even Moin Khan had declared that we will play SA in finals. But Australia had other plans. Australia fought hard to defend paltry 213 it put on board. Klusener came to crease at 174-5 in 45th over. He quickly took SA  to 205/9 by 49th over. In last over he hit 2 consecutive fours of Fleming to level the score. The next ball he tried to take a single and Donald, the non striker got confused and there was a run-out. SA lost the match dramatically.


2003:

India had a fabulous journey in this WC until they found Ponting in the finals.A memorable WC for Indian fans.

Sachin vs Pak:

98 of 75 balls which took the wind off the Pakistani sails.A memorable innings for decades to come. icing on the cake was the six of a square cut of Akhatar's delivery.
The quicker he bowled the quicker it went to the boundary lines. Abdul Razzaq dropping Sachin's catch and Wasim telling him "Ye tune kiska catch chor diya" ,is now a part of the cricketing folklore.

                                         



Sachin against Caddick:

I just love this shot and may be I will remember this till the end of my times. Sachin scored a 50 in that match,

Nehra vs England:

One of those days when Nehra bowled really well .Took 7 against England to secure an Indian victory.


Zaheer's 1st over in Finals:

"Well begun is half done" goes an old adage. But the reverse also cuts true.And this over from Zaheer Khan is a testimony to that.Set a perfect background for the belting that India was to receive from Ponting later on that day.




Sunday, 1 February 2015

Digital Footprints & Who viewed your FB Profile

Ever since I started with my goal of writing at least on blog each weekend , the biggest question has been "what to write" .Obviously other pain point is how to promote myself (not on FB for sure cause I have seen too many people with their music/videos begging for likes.45 people tagged to a song and just 4 likes.)
I looked at whatever is trending right now on FB/Quora feeds.
An somehow I ended up on a page which showed what India searched most in 2014.
Now this gave a fairly accurate idea of what people want/search on internet.
After some random surfing I was able to know a lot of what google already knew about me.

This link nails it.It simply deciphers your personality.You are actually what you want to be.And google searches definitely don't lie on this count.While FB profile gives away the shows and books we like,this actually provides a very clean break-up of all our online activities and consequently a lot of what we think/want.    

            
 http://www.google.com/settings/ads/















You may delete your search history ,but google keeps a tab on all this and based on our preferences simply shows us the ads which might interest us. I think it is one of most accurate ways to figure out our interests and likes.

Similarly for YouTube search history: https://www.youtube.com/feed/history/search_history
Based on this data , you get videos in your feed.





Who viewed you Facebook Profile:

An interesting question and perhaps everyone would like to know who visited their profile.
Though it is not full-proof but still gives a fair idea of who has been stalking you.
Now go to your Profile and on left corner of do this:




Search for InitialChatFriendsList in that page.





Now just copy the id which is there and append it with www.facebook.com/ without quotes and all in your browser.It will open the profile of that respective id.
Now you may be shouting that this only gives the name of people with whom I recently chatted as the name itself says.But be patient. Facebook gives a score to all who view your profile and that is a combination of recent chats and profile views both.So obviously those who regularly interact with you will figure higher up in the list but as you go down ,means after 10 or may be 15 you will find surprising names(you secret stalkers).People you never had the courage or topic to chat also figure there.

UI Validation:
Two screenshots pasted here are from my profile and shows what happens when the chat is turned off.You can turn off your chat by gear icon in bottom right of your screen.

Chat on:





Chat Off:






Clearly the list when the chat is off is different.This list is actually generated by Facebook an basis of interactions and profile visits.So while the person who chats a lot with you will definitely figure on top many silent stalkers will obviously figure after 10-15  users and they will a surprise. The sequence of offline chat list and the profile  generated by the    InitialChatFriendsList are one and same.     

 I believe this method is fairly accurate.
Even if not , after a marathon profile stalking last night I would suggest you "Start Stalking those who stalked you" and be pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised.  Happy Stalking & don't be surprised to find me.